This page is dedicated to tracking financial predictions made by the “experts.”

PREDICTION #2: JEREMY SIEGEL:  20% RETURN ON s&p500 FROM OCTOBER 31, 2008 TO OCTOBER 31, 2009 

Dated Added: December 6, 2008
Date of Prediction: October 31, 2008
Making Prediction: Jeremy Siegel
Prediction: I was hesitant to include Siegel because he didn’t make a flat out prediction.  He’s much too wise for that.  He includes all the appropriate qualifiers:

“No one can guarantee the future of the stock market. But I believe that stock prices are now so extraordinarily cheap that I would be very surprised that if an investor who bought a diversified portfolio today did not make at least 20% or more on his investment in the next twelve months.”
Why Track This: I’ve been a big fan of Jeremy Siegel ever since I read “Stocks for the Long Run.”   I’d love for him to be right.   Not because I have a man crush on Prof. Siegel.   I just want my portfolio to go up next year.
Verification Date: October 31, 2009
Result: ??

 

PREDICTION #1: UNITED NATIONS PREDICTS U.S. SLOWDOWN TO CONTINUE THROUGH 2009

Dated Added: May 16, 2008
Date of Prediction: May 16, 2008
Making Prediction: United Nations
Prediction: U.S. economy to shrink by -0.2% in 2008 and grow 0.2% in 2009.
Why Track This: To see if the U.N. has better economists than it has oil-for-food administrators (ha ha).  Seriously, to see if I should pay attention to U.N. economic projections.
Verification Date: 2008 numbers should be released in the first half of 2009, and 2009 numbers in the first half of 2010.
Result: ??