Jail is my worst enemy at times, and at times my best friend. It depends on how many hotels there are.
I came across this statistical analysis of Monopoly by Truman Collins, who as far as I can tell is an electrical engineer in Oregon.
It has the distinction of being the most complete statistical analysis of Monopoly I’ve ever seen, and the only statistical analysis of Monopoly I’ve ever seen.
I have neither the time nor inclination to check Truman’s model. But assuming it’s right, it claims to determine the most likely square to end your turn on (slightly different than the most likely square to land on). I believe there are 40 squares on a Monopoly board, so the average likelihood for each square should be 2.5%.
It may not come as a surprise that Jail is the most likely square to end a turn. You can end a turn in Jail by landing on Go To Jail, rolling three doubles, getting a Chance or Community Chest, or by starting the turn in Jail and not getting out.
After Jail, what is the next most likely square to end your turn on? I would not have guessed: Illinois Avenue.
And the least likely square? It’s a trick question. Since it’s least likely to end on, rather than land on, Go To Jail is the least likely since it’s impossible to end a turn there.
The three next least likely squares are Chance, followed by the first Community Chest (between Mediterranean and Baltic). Why? Because many Chance and Community Chest cards send you to another square. Interestingly, the other Community Chests are substantially more likely than the first one. Not sure why that would be.
After Go To Jail and the card squares, the least likely square is ….. (drum roll) ….. Mediterranean Avenue.
There you go, more statistics than you ever wanted to know about Monopoly. Unless you’re a statistics geek like me, in which case I predict you will check out the analysis yourself.
P.S. My deepest apologies for ending a few sentences with a preposition. I don’t prefer it, but it’s the vernacular.